It was to
happen, and was just a matter of time.
It was a typical
Sharad Pawar move, and after placing the cards initially, he transitioned to
the next stage, stirring the elements of political opportunism to score the
brownie points that were envisaged earlier.
Smelling the
flavour, Sharad Pawar's Nationalist Congress Party had announced unconditional
support to BJP to form the government in Maharashtra after the assembly poll
results on October 19. Though BJP emerged as the largest party, it was 23 seats
short of the majority mark in the 288-member assembly and the talks with
Shivsena were not making much headway apart from the routine newsmaking noise.
He reiterated
his support on November 10, two days before the trust vote on November 12. He
said, "We have made our position
clear. We want stability. We cannot have elections again. We will ensure that
there will be no instability".
The 'tacit'
understanding continued to sing the melody on November 12 when BJP played on the
tune Pawar had in mind while Congress and Shivsena created din on the 'murder
of democracy' after BJP won the controversial trust vote by 'voice vote'.
Though, even
after this, the BJP-Shivsena exercise to find a way in out of the logjam continued.
But nothing concrete came out and Shivsena, being the second largest party in
the assembly with 63 seats, bagged the opposition leader position as the
deadline to do so approached.
Now, the ball
was perfectly in Sharad Pawar's court waiting to be played further by his next
stroke. And the next stroke came within a week.
Sharad Pawar,
the Congress man, who 'rebelled', left (or was expelled from) the Congress
party, and formed his own political outfit, Nationalist Congress Party, on the
issue of Sonia Gandhi's Italian origin, soon took a comfortably opportunist
political U-turn, entered in an alliance with Congress and formed government in
Maharashtra in 1999. It is to be seen in the context that Pawar shared good
relation with Pramod Mahajan and BJP-Shivsena combine was expecting NCP to join
them after the fractured Maharashtra mandate in 1999. Instead, Pawar, in a move
that has become trademark of his party's political opportunism now, decided to
go with Congress.
Though the notes
were discordant all along the duration of the compromised love affair, from
1999 to 2014 in Maharashtra and from 2004 to 2014 in Delhi, it continued
somehow, as long as the power looked within the visible range.
But Pawar and
his party kept on playing, tactfully, the discordant notes all along, keeping
its senior and parent party on tenterhooks. The NCP-Congress differences and
war of words made for countless headlines. Sharad Pawar even issued grave
threats to pull back. Also, his party had no reservations in praising Narendra Modi
at times and showing positive inclinations towards BJP.
That was the typical political flavour of
the times in India, customized and practiced the Sharad Pawar way - playing the
good Samaritan of Indian politics - while keeping his eye centrally glued to
furthering interests of his family. The corruption allegations against the
Pawar family have the potential to open a Pandora's box that may prove the
ultimate nemesis. That has to be handled and warded away. And that requires one
to be in 'some' position.
When it was written all over that Congress,
UPA and NCP-Congress were not going to come back in power, it was logical that
Sharad Pawar break away demanding parity in the ticket distribution process or
any other reason for that matter. One of the calculations would be that NCP
could emerge out as the kingmaker in case of a hung assembly scenario as the
BJP-Sena alliance was also broken.
Pawar played his cards. BJP joined the game
as it helped the party on dealing with Shivsena on its own terms. On the
surface, the party which Narendra Modi named 'Naturally Corrupt Party', was not
to be an ally. The spectacle of the 'voice vote' was to avoid this embarrassment
only. It did keep Shivsena in check but it also made NCP the only choice BJP
had, to prove the majority of its minority government, to have the leased life
for six months, before which the BJP government's majority cannot be put to
test again.
And that placed Sharad Pawar on top. And he
remains there, as of now, as the political developments of the moment are.
Shivsena is the principal opposition and
Devendra Fadnavis, who raised the irrigation scam issue with central
allegations focused on NCP state leadership and who is openly pro-Vidarbha (a
separate Vidarbha state from Maharashtra), is heading the minority government
of BJP.
Until BJP seals a deal with Shivsena to
form an alliance, Sharad Pawar will remain an imperative for Devendra Fadnavis,
a position that BJP would like to get away from as soon as possible. But, going
by the political equations now, nothing can be said on that front.
And with it, he played his next stroke
today.
It was time to flex muscles after BJP acted
visibly-politically-detached on NCP's offer, sending out the message that it
was rather NCP's compulsion to offer support to BJP.
And it came as a direct warning. Playing
the good Samaritan, he deliberated on the political developments that BJP and
Shivsena were still not able to stitch an alliance, a must for political
stability. He said, "If the BJP and
Shiv Sena had joined together, there could have been stability. However, that
did not happen. If the situation continues like this for the next six months,
it will be time for fresh Assembly elections. We are not obliged to ensure
stability of the government."
Within a week, Mr. Pawar has travelled from
- We will ensure
that there will be no instability. - to - We
are not obliged to ensure stability of the government.
So, the onus is now on BJP. NCP has played
it part (and its card). It may be just a rhetoric but coming from Sharad Pawar
makes in unpredictable. And the possible predictability that BJP may choose to
break NCP in case talks with Shivsena break completely and fail finally would
certainly be in Sharad Pawar's mind when he issued the warning.
Let's see how BJP reads and interprets this
warning.